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MLB Bet of the Day | June 9, 2024

Mitch S
Mitch S
In this column, Mitch goes through the BEST BET he's seeing in the MLB today.

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 90-91-4, -5.86u
RECAP: Our MLB of the Day has been in a rough patch lately, but we’ve still been profiting, going 2-2 yesterday with a gain of .1u on the day thanks to two plus-money winners in the MLB. The Red Sox absolutely surprised me yesterday, getting manhandled by the White Sox – and that’s why anyone can win on any given day in the MLB! We move into two looking to improve our record, but will be playing lighter on the day. 

June 9th, 2024

We’re going back to Miami for their final game of the series against the Cleveland Guardians, a rubber match between two teams that are looking to take the series today, throwing two pitchers who neither team really has any confidence in. 

Cookie Carrasco is starting for the Guardians, and he’s really truly the lesser of two evils in this game today. Carrasco’s saving grace is his WHIP on the road, which is still bad (1.28), but is about league-average – while the rest of his advanced stats leave much to be desired. He’s much better during the day than at night, but he’s proven that he can have formidable games this season, such as his last two away starts. Through his last two away starts, Cookie has gone 12 innings and allowed five earned runs, which isn’t too bad considering his opponent in today’s game. 

Trevor Rogers has virtually zero redeeming qualities when it comes to his season so far, including a 1.78 WHIP at his home ballpark this season. He’s given up eight earned runs over his last nine innings pitched at home and he’s literally in the last percentile in the league so far this season in pitcher run value. He adds virtually nothing positive to his team. 

And while neither of these pitchers are going to offer anything substantial, we have to look to the offenses to find an edge - and that’s precisely where we’re going here. Sharp AI has the Guardians as a 65% favorite today, which is where we’re getting value at spotting them around -110/-120. 

Over their last ten games, the Guardians are putting up five runs per game and are getting on base at a really nice clip of 33% – while the Marlins are allowing an OBP of 34% over their last ten games. The Marlins are only putting up a batting average of .226 at home this season and have a bottom-three OPS in their home stadium. The Guardians have a top-ten OPS on the road this season. 

It seems simple enough, but this Guardians team has the better offense and should foster the better pitching today. Our AI seems to love them, so let’s ride with them today. 

PICK: Cleveland Guardians ML

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