MLB Bet of the Day | June 7, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 87-87-4, -5.42u
RECAP: We lowered our unit size, and it paid off big time, hitting not only our MLB of the Day, but also hitting on both a plus-money parlay and the total in Washington DC. Our only drop was the Cubs ML, where they got screwed out of a few calls that led to Reds runs. We gain just over 1.2 units on the day, and we’ll build on that today as we have another full slate, ripe for value. 

June 7th, 2024

It’s no secret that the Miami Marlins are one of the worst teams in baseball, and today, they welcome (arguably) baseball’s biggest surprise to Miami in the Cleveland Guardians. They’re throwing Logan Allen today, while the Marlins are throwing their most consistent pitcher, Ryan Weathers. Sharp AI has this game projected at O/U 8.5, so we've got a clear move to make. 

Weathers has been a player that we’ve backed in the past, but I love this matchup against a solid-hitting team. While Weathers has had success away from home, his home stats are not something to be proud of, as he owns a WHIP of 1.37 at home and has allowed 16 earned runs in 27 innings pitched. And while he had a stellar May, his first start of the month may indicate that he’s back to his average ways; in fact, Marlins pitchers average over five runs per game given up at home this season.

The Guardians aren’t the most stellar hitting team, but they have six starters hitting the ball hard in over 40% of at-bats over their last fourteen games, including a red-hot Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor. The Guards are averaging five runs per game away from home against lefties this season as well, getting on base 33% of the time this season. 

Miami isn’t too shabby at home either this season, and get on base nearly 30% of the time at home against lefties. In fact, they have five players over that same hard-hit threshold over their last 14 days, and today they welcome Logan Allen, whose advanced stats are not something to brag too hard about. 

Allen’s advanced stats page looks like a massacre, but the truth is that he’s allowed 19 earned runs over 31 innings on the road, and he’s given up ten earned runs over his last eight innings pitched. While he’s pitched alright beyond that, he’s participated in a ton of games that have gone over the total this season, and four out of his last five games have gone over this 7.5 mark. Flat-out, Logan Allen receives a ton of run support in his starts. 

This number of 7.5 seems like it may be a battle to get over, but I think it’ll be easier than we think. The public thinks of both of these teams as losing offenses, but we’ll get proven wrong tonight by Jazz Chisholm and company. Take the over, and be confident in it; Sharp AI has this game over, too. 

PICK: Cleveland / Miami over 7.5

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