MLB Bet of the Day | July 9, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 145-142-5, -1.72u
RECAP: We went 2-2 on the small slate yesterday, but we drop our MLB of the Day in horrific fashion, as the Nats just never caught fire yesterday. Our Team Total Parlay lost by one team once again, but our two PRO plays were hot, as we go 2-0 on the Reds total and the Twins beating the White Sox by more than one. On to day, where we have a loaded slate literally all day long! 

July 9th, 2024

We head to Tampa Bay today to analyze the first game between the Rays and the Yankees, two teams that have been trending in the same direction as of late: down. We have Ryan Pepiot, the main piece in the Glasnow trade, taking on Carlos Rodon. 

Rodon has struggled in all sorts of ways over the course of this season, and this matchup breeds just about the worst in him: he’s got a WHIP of 1.35 on the road this season and he’s struggled mightily over his last three starts. In fact, June and July have straight up not been good to him; over six starts, he’s allowed 26 earned runs over just 31 innings, meaning that he’s nearly allowed a run per inning over this stretch. 

That’s a pitching matchup that the Rays can take advantage of, as they’ve killed righties at home this season; they’ve scored five runs per game at home, and gotten on base 32% of the time, which is above league-average. Tampa Bay is one of the top “overs” teams in the league when they’re the home underdog, which is the case tonight, winning the over by an average of 1.2 runs per game. 

The Yankees, on the other hand, happen to be the best “away favorite” overs team in the league, winning the over at 70% of the time by a margin of over two runs per game. And Pepiot hasn’t been absolutely stellar this season at home, allowing a WHIP of 1.12 and 25 runs across about 50 innings. He’ll allow at least three today against this offense that’s been shown to put runs across in a hurry, even if they’re heading downward record-wise. Over their last ten games, the Yankees have put up over five runs per game and have gotten on base at a clip of 31% – and the road is quite their bread and butter for scoring, beating the lines by an average of .8 overall on the season. 

These bats of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto have to heat up more and more as the All-Star Break comes near, and Yankees fans are clamoring for a win in this series. In order to do that, they’re not going to be able to rely on Rodon to get the job done, so it’s going to have to be the offense… and that means runs. 

PICK: New York / Tampa Bay over 8

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