MLB Bet of the Day | July 5, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 137-135-5, -0.79u
RECAP: Yesterday went just about as good as you could hope, as we go 6-0 in the MLB, including hitting our MLB of the Day (which was an absolute no-sweat) and our Team Total Parlay, which the Yankees cashed in the eighth inning. We go 4-0 on our other four PRO Plays, and it’s a new season now, my friends. To get PRO Access, be sure to use the link below for 20% off of your purchase. 

July 5th, 2024

Today we’re backing one of my favorite up and coming pitchers in the MLB in Carson Spiers as they welcome the Tigers into town. The Tigers are coming off of a tough series against the Twins, and the Reds are riding high off of a series sweep of the Yankees at home. 

This is a matchup that is unfair for my personal belief system, because I love both Spiers and Reese Olson a lot; yet, we’re going to back the hotter offense today and the trends that show that this game might not be as close as the books are saying. The Reds are a dominant first-game team, going 19-9 this season, while the Tigers tend to take the first game of the series off, going 12-16 this season (and 6-9 when they’re coming off of a loss). The Sharp App AI projects the Reds to win this game, giving them a 55%. 

And it’s backed by the stats, too; Reese Olson is the pitcher in the league that literally gets the least run support. Although he’s pitched well over his last five or so games, he’s lost four of them thanks to a lack of run support from this quiet offense. Over their last ten, the Tigers are hitting just .195 and getting on base a SUPER sad 23% – that’s the worst in the league over that stretch. The Reds, meanwhile, have hit a groove, scoring over five runs per game. 

Detroit struggles against the NL this season too, going 12-16 so far this season in interleague play. Both of these bullpens are relatively rested as well, so we can’t look there for an advantage; but Spiers provides the advantage we need. At the very least, he’s a workhorse, carrying the Reds for six innings in each of his last three starts; he’s got one of the best hard hit percentages in the league, and he literally doesn’t walk anyone, with a walk rate of 4.5%. He misses barrels, and he’s been extremely good at his home ballpark this season. 

Let’s take the Reds and Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer and company to hit the ball hard today against Reese Olson. It pains me, but let’s back the home team against Reese Olson. 

PICK: Cincinnati Reds ML 

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