MLB Bet of the Day | July 31, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 178-175-7, -3.18u
RECAP: We go 2-2 yesterday, including two PRO play wins on the total in Philly and in St. Louis, but we drop the Team Total Parlay and the Freebie of the Day to break even on the day altogether. It was a tough one as the KC Royals couldn’t hang on, as we lose in the 8th inning - and once again, the Team Total Parlay loses by one run. It was a day full of tough breaks! 

July 31st, 2024

We’re going back to the exact same game that we highlighted yesterday in the Royals and the White Sox because it’s Singer day! And today, Brady Singer is taking on the most abysmal White Sox team that we detailed yesterday, so I’m going to spend some time talking about why our tools value this under today between these two teams. 

I’ve hated on Drew Thorpe since he came up, betting against him pretty much his whole career. Last week it came to fruition when he blew up against the Mariners, allowing 8 runs in .2 innings pitched. But, the fact of the matter is this: most of his advanced stats are really solid. He’s had a rough patch at home, but the reality is that he’s got a WHIP of 1.18 at home despite those struggles.  Before that outburst, he had pitched 24 innings over four games, including an six-inning shutout against this Royals team just two weeks ago. He keeps his exit velocity really low, and limits hard hits well. While he’s struggled to strike out batters, this is a patient KC team anyways, so I don’t factor that much. 

Plus, Brady Singer has quietly emerged as a really great contributing piece to this pitching staff. He has an ERA under two in July through five starts and has been great during day games (like the one today), allowing just 17 runs over 60 innings pitched. He thrives when the sun’s out, and I can’t blame him! 

Finally, the Sharp App line movement tool has shown this line fluctuate between 8.5 and 9 all day, and while some of the public may be on the over here because they see the White Sox and think “oh, they’re going to get shelled”... I think that it’s the opposite here. Thorpe has some real potential to be devastating on the mound today at home (where he’s been shaky). Brady Singer is as consistent as they come, and has dominated the White Sox in his career. Let’s take the under nine on this one. 

PICK: Kansas City / Chicago under 9

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