MLB Bet of the Day | July 28, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 174-170-7, -2.40u
RECAP: We hit a nice day yesterday, going 3-1 for a total gain of nearly two units on the day, making back most of what we lost the previous day and getting us back on the journey out of our MLB sadness. The Rays, Braves, and Team Total Parlay were all easy winners, while the total in Detroit was a wash by the seventh inning. On to our Sunday! 

July 28th, 2024

I hate to bet against one of the best pitchers in the league, but we’re seeing a significant difference here to bet on a good team at nearly even money to beat the worst team in baseball. To be fair, the White Sox are 2-17 this season in the third game of the series after losing game two… which is part of the reason we’re banking on them today. 

Garrett Crochet is a very properly-rated pitcher; he’s got electric stuff and it’s no wonder that the White Sox (the cheapest team in the league, in my opinion) won’t want to pay him, and they’re hoping another team does. I don’t think that he’s traded at the deadline, but he will hopefully take the loss today. 

The Mariners are looking to sweep the White Sox today on the back of Bryce Miller, who has absolutely diced this White Sox team in his career to the tune of a .097 batting average and one of the best wxOBA’s in the league. And while Bryce Miller isn’t an ace on the road this season (1.22 WHIP, 30 earned runs in 49 innings) this lineup is among the least potent in the league. 

Over their last ten games, the White Sox are averaging under two runs per game and getting on base only 23% of the time. The Mariners aren’t explosive on offense, but at least can muster up getting on base 28% of the time and pushing across over three runs per game during this stretch. It’s not exactly GOOD, but we don’t need the greatest offense today… we just need a few bats on balls, and this White Sox bullpen has a 7.20 ERA over their last three games. It’s been bad. 

Let’s take the Mariners to sweep today against the worst team in baseball at near even money. Even if it doesn’t hit, we can rest knowing that we took a bet that’s hit 90% of the time this season. My model has this game close, but the M’s prevail in game three. 

PICK: Seattle Mariners ML 

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