MLB Bet of the Day | July 13, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 154-149-7, -0.38u
RECAP: We go 3-2 on the day yesterday, with our Team Total Parlay and our Freebie dropping, but that’s why it pays to be a Pro Subscriber, with those three straight plays hitting to salvage our day. We hit a couple of plus-money plays to gain over a unit of profit, and we’re back on the cusp of having a great MLB season – I can feel it. On to today’s play! 

July 13th, 2024

Today we head to Tampa Bay for Game Two of their three-game series against the Cleveland Guardians, who lost 2-0 yesterday, not being able to muster up any offense whatsoever – but our trends show that these two pitchers may not be able to contain these bats today in Florida. 

Zach Littell started off his season really well, and has fallen off of a cliff as of late; he’s allowed nine runs over his last three starts, and hasn’t made it past the fifth inning in any of his last five starts. He sports a WHIP over 1.60 in his last two months pitching, and this is an offense that capitalizes on baserunners. This bullpen’s best arms aren’t on the most rest ever, and they’re facing an offense that bounces back from losses really well this season.

Weird statistic of the day: the Guardians hit the over 70% of the time after they lose a game the previous day. And coming into today, they’re playing league-average ball, getting on base 31% of the time during this ten-game stretch, and are a really solid away team offensively this season.

The Guardians are throwing Gavin Williams, who I like a lot, but is still trying to find his footing in this league. He’s allowed five runs in nine innings so far this season, and he’s shown that he can’t miss barrels yet, and he really doesn’t strike anyone out. Plus, this Rays offense has been really dynamic over these past few stretches of games, ranking in the top half of the league in OPS over their last fifteen, and getting on base over 33% of the time over their last ten games. 

With Williams not showing his proficiency to last deep into games, that means that the bullpen is going to have to be rock solid. They’ve been the best bullpen in the league for a reason, but this Rays team could get to them to progress to the mean.

Let’s take the over 8 because our trends agree; my model shows that there should be around nine runs scored in this game.

PICK: Cleveland / Tampa Bay over 8

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