MLB Bet of the Day | July 10, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 146-145-6, -3.97u
RECAP: We pushed in our MLB of the Day, and that was just about the only bright spot yesterday in what was a “two steps back” type of day, losing just over two units of profit on the day. While some bets were wildly close, others were not, and we lose the Team Total Parlay by - you guessed it - one run. Super tough. We’ll get it back starting today. 

July 10th, 2024

This bet almost seems too good to be true, and that’s why we’re going to capitalize on the number we’re getting it at (-104) – I think that the line will move as the day progresses. That being said, the second game of the series between the Marlins and the Astros is sure to (hopefully) have plenty of fireworks for one team. 

Framber Valdez is facing a Marlins team that he’s been able to dice his whole career; through 40 plate appearances, he’s held this Marlins team to a .162 average and a wOBA of .220 – that’s incredibly good. While Valdez hasn’t been his sparkly self over the past month, he dominates the middle innings of games and, if he can make it to the sixth, he should be able to give this Houston bullpen the minimal time they need to hold a lead. 

Bryan Hoeing is pitching for the Marlins, and while he’s shown flashes of really solid pitching, he’s allowing an xBA of .302 and he’s yet to make a start on the road this season. He won’t last long, either – and this bullpen walks a lot of batters, and over their last ten games, this bullpen is allowing an OBP of .302. 

Plus, this Houston team should be able to pounce on the righty, as they’ve hit righties really well over the course of the season, especially at home. They’re getting on base 33% of the time, and with Yordan Alvarez back in the lineup, I’m feeling even more confident that they should get out to a hot start. They’re scoring over six runs per game over their last ten contests.

While I don’t have all of the confidence in Valdez, the Whale (according to the Sharp Report) does, as he’s hit the same bet as us. My models show that the Marlins should only push across around three runs, while the Stros should be able to get at least six; that’s a recipe for a nice -1.5 bet that we’re going to place, especially with how bad the Marlins’ offense has been recently, getting on base only 27% of the time over their last ten games. 

Let’s take the Marlins to lose by two or more runs today, and for the Stros to control this game from the get-go. In Framber we trust. 

PICK: Houston Astros -1.5

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