MLB Bet of the Day | August 6, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a amoneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 186-182-8, -2.05u
RECAP: Yesterday we go 2-1 on the day including hits on both of our PRO Plays! Our freebies have been swinging and missing for like, a week now… but that’s going to change today, as we’ve gained a little profit nearly every day in August so far. It’s been a good month, and let’s look to build on that today! 

August 6th, 2024

We’ve been on quite a bad stretch here for our freebies recently, so let’s change it up a little bit and get our mojo back, and we’re going to align with the Reds to win by more than one run – while being satisfied with a push if they only win by one.

I am a new member of the Max Meyer fan club, because he’s got absolutely nasty stuff in spurts. His biggest problem though is command of his offspeed pitches, which have been getting crushed as he begins his MLB career. He started off his career strong but has regressed in every single game since he debuted this season; which means that we can only expect him to get hit hard again against a really potent Reds lineup that has been able to hit the ball well, including in last night’s game against the Marlins in game one. And Meyer has a lot going against him in this one. 

Game Two’s are the Marlins’ kryptonite, winning just 33% of their game threes after a loss this season. In fact, the Marlins only have a projected 29% chance to win this game according to Sharp AI, and while the moneyline is just a little too juiced for me (you can get it around -135ish), we’re going to upgrade our play to Reds -1, which means that it’s a push if they only win by one, and it’s a win if they win by more than one. It’s a win-win to me, especially in a game where our AI aligns heavily with Cinci on this one.

Nick Lodolo has struggled a lot in his last few games, but he’ll progress back to the mean in this one I’m sure. His July splits were straight-up not good, sporting a WHIP of 1.37 and allowing twenty runs in 27 innings. But he’s been an absolute ace on the road this season, and it’s backed by his .81 WHIP and only allowing 14 runs over 44 innings. It’s literally an immaculate run. 

Elly De La Cruz and company have been hitting the ball well on the road as well, getting on base near that 30% mark that we want on the season. Over their last five games against righties as well, they’ve pushed across nearly six runs per game and are getting on base over 33% of the time.

Let’s hope for the big win from Cinci today with a pitcher looking to progress towards the mean, and a home team pitcher that can’t seem to find his groove in his young career. 

PICK: Cincinnati Reds -1 (-108)

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