MLB Bet of the Day | August 28, 2024
In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.
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OVERALL RECORD: 219-206-8, +7.44u
RECAP: Again, it’s time to look in the mirror and see if we can right the ship after going 1-2 yesterday in all of our picks. The Brewers lost by one, the Royals got rained on and Cleveland lacked the scoring we needed, but we hit a plus-money play in the road team in Arizona as the Mets shut down the D-Backs. On to today, where we have a loaded slate!
August 28th, 2024
This is a bet that I can guarantee that you’re going to hate placing, and it could be excruciating waiting this one out. But I think we’ll know pretty early on whether or not this bet is going to hit based on these starters.
The headliner here is Paul Skenes, the fireballer who has been actually slowing down quite a bit over this last stretch. The fact of the matter is this: despite him allowing three runs in his first career game ever pitched, he has absolutely annihilated the Cubs through two starts of his MLB career. The Cubs this season have had a really hard time hitting the fastball/sinker combination, which makes up over 50% of Skenes’ pitches this season. The first two games of this series saw the total go over, which makes me even more confident in regression here as Skenes should be able to go six with little trouble throughout, despite the Cubs’ recent offensive success. Every team has a down day, and even Coach Anthony’s model is projecting a low-scoring affair.
Kyle Hendricks is the wild card here; but he’s been much better over this last stretch of games. Over his last four games pitched, he’s allowing less than three earned runs per start, and these Cubs arms are incredibly well rested, even if Hendricks can only make it through five innings.
As well, the Pirates are getting on base just 28% of the time over their last ten games, and they’re without the bats of Henry Davis and Bryan De La Cruz today in the starting lineup, instead replacing with Billy McKinney, Yasmani Grandal, and Alika Williams. Those bats shouldn’t scare Hendricks, and they shouldn’t scare you.
Finally, the Cubs lineup is one of the hottest in the league. I know. But we have to turn to one more edge today, which is the umpire; despite going 12-11 on the over this season in games he’s officiated, four out of his last five have gone for unders, and none of them have been close at all.
I’m not sure if I would call today a pitcher’s duel, but it’s definitely a matchup between two pitchers that should be able to find some success today.
PICK: Chicago / Pittsburgh under 8.5
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