MLB Bet of the Day | August 27, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 218-204-8, +8.44u
RECAP: I totally forgot to change the above total to reflect the past few days, so that’s why the total looks different! Yesterday was another sweep of the day, as we’re 7-0 in the past two days (and undefeated since I had my son!). We killed the total in Cleveland in game two, and the rest of our PRO plays were winners as well. We’ve got a late slate today and a couple winners that will hopefully fall into our lap. 

August 27th, 2024

Fading Logan Webb seems like a disaster waiting to happen, but this Milwaukee lineup is just too dominant, and the line has been moving their direction all day. Despite the pitcher in San Fran, our Sharp AI is still giving the Brewers a 57% predictive win percentage. And, we’re getting it at a great price. Let’s dive in. 

It’s no secret that Logan Webb is on a heater lately; but, when you look at the gritty details, those outstanding games have A) all come at home, and B) been against the White Sox, Braves (who stunk at the time), Nats, and Oakland. The last time he played a competent offense, he gave up four over five to the Dodgers. Tonight, he faces the best home offense in the MLB in Milwaukee, a team that wins 60% of the time at home no matter the opponent, and wins even more when they’re the favorite. Tonight, they’re the favorite. 

And Tobias Myers is on a heater of his own, allowing less than two runs in each of the last five games he’s pitched. In fact, Myers has won each of his last three starts at home, and is facing an offense that can’t find its footing over this last stretch of games. In fact, the Giants are bottom-ten in the league in OPS over their last fifteen games, and are getting on base just 28% of the time during that stretch. 

As the away underdog, this team just cannot get it’s footing, winning just 37% of all games this season in this scenario. The Brewers may be the best home team in the league on offense, and are at least hitting that near 30% on base percentage over their last fifteen games. 

Finally, if we turn to the bullpens, this Giants bullpen is an accident waiting to happen. Between Camilo Doval and company, there’s no consistency. All we get in the Brewers bullpen is consistency, and they’re among the best in the league, and are a huge reason why they’re in a great position this season.
When the lines opened, the wrong team was favored. The lines have since corrected, and now we’re hammering the home team. 

PICK: Milwaukee Brewers ML

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