MLB Bet of the Day | August 26, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 210-201-8, +1.03u
RECAP: It’s been quite a while since we last spoke, as I had my firstborn child on August 22nd at 5:38AM. He’s wonderful and magical, and he’s everything I could have ever dreamed of. He also gave me some dad strength yesterday, going 4-0 in the MLB including two plus-money plays. Today’s plays hope to follow that same trend! 

August 26th, 2024

Let’s be super careful here when placing this bet, as we’re looking at the second game of their double-header today – when placing this bet, make sure it’s for the game between Alec Marsh and Logan Allen! 

Allen is one of those pitchers I really thought would be able to make a substantial jump in the second year of his MLB career, but he’s been plagued with issues locating his pitches and has spent much of his time down in AAA. He’s called upon today because of a double-header, and that means that we have to capitalize on the bats of KC. 

Kansas City is among the hottest bats in the league right now, and their offensive numbers over their last ten games show it. They’re hitting a combined .300, pushing across six runs per game, and getting on base nearly 35% of all plate appearances. And today, they face Allen, who has had spot starts throughout the season. Allen has faced off against the Royals the most out of any team in his career, and he’s been shelled each time; his xBA is .301, while his allowed BA is .355. Those are in line with KC’s current numbers, which makes me think that the Royals may tee off on him in Cleveland.

But the other side isn’t all sunshine and roses either, as Alec Marsh has been an overs machine throughout his recent stretch, hitting the over in four out of his last five games. This includes a start earlier this season against Cleveland where he went 2.2 innings and allowed four runs, leading to the over. His expected BA is a whopping .338 and his xwOBA is a .440 – that’s bad, especially for a team like Cleveland, that will capitalize on bad pitching.

Cleveland has been great at home this season against righties, pushing across five runs per game. Despite this being the second leg of a double-header, we’re looking at two teams that are going to push across runs today in both of their games (probably). Salvador Perez, Bobby Witt, and Jose Ramirez are going to put on a show in their highly competitive two game set today, and we’re going to be looking for runs throughout tonight’s game. Take the over. 

PICK: Kansas City / Cleveland over 8.5 (G2)

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