MLB Bet of the Day | August 18, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 205-197-8, +0.66u
RECAP: Well, I was pretty wrong about the Carlos Rodon trajectory… but it didn’t matter because Keider Montero had a masterclass and the bats cooled down, which we projected in yesterday’s MLB of the Day. We also snag the Royals at plus-money, and it turns out to be a 2-0 day. Lately it seems like it’s all or nothing with me, so let’s see how this Sunday turns out.  

August 18th, 2024

Backing a team to avoid a sweep is always a daunting task, but there’s no better team in the league than the Arizona Diamondbacks bouncing back from a game two loss and picking up a game three win. And today, they try to avoid the sweep in a bullpen-ish game from the Rays. 

This matchup is kind of crazy, considering it has two starters who are both one-game removed from their long IL stint. Drew Rasmussen was hit hard in his first start back, as the Rays are looking to ease him into the starting rotation once again. He was really good before he was injured, but his last start saw him pitch one inning and allow three earned runs. Merrill Kelly, on the other hand, was really good, going five strong innings and only allowing three hits during that span. For Rasmusssen, it led to the loss, and for Kelly, it led to the win; but how will today go? 

Sharp AI projects that the Diamondbacks have a 61% predicted win percentage, and that the line should be well in their favor; yet, we’re getting it at -115, and I believe that it should be higher than that. Tropicana is the second-best park in the league to pitch in, and Kelly should be able to exploit this lack of an offense for Tampa Bay.

In fact, while Tampa has been alright in game threes after a win (9-7), the Diamondbacks are absolutely incredible in this situation this season. They’re 11-4 on the season after losing game two, and winning at a 73% clip in this scenario.

The clearly have the better pitching (and longer pitching, too, as I expect Rasmussen to be pulled after four innings or so) and the more consistent offense. In fact, despite losing the first two games of the series, they still are putting up great numbers; they’re getting on base 35% of the time and pushing across five runs per game over their last five games. The Rays cannot say so, as they’re only getting on base 25% of the time (oof!) and hitting a crazy low .204. This offense is in a rut, and people forget how good Merrill Kelly can be. That’s why we’re backing the Snakes today, as I expect Kelly, Carroll, and some of the big boppers in Arizona to have a great outing.

PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks ML

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