MLB Bet of the Day | April 4, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 10-10, -0.72u
RECAP: I can feel the positivity in the air, as we go 3-1 in our MLB plays over the past two days, gaining just over a unit of profit over the two days. It was a sweat in Boston, as we nearly claimed a W on the under, but instead, the Red Sox came back and won, along with our cash from the under in the Yankees game. Their offense went lifeless, and Zac Gallen, our cover boy, cashed in easily. We’ll keep chipping away at our deficit, and hopefully we can get out of this rut soon. 

April 4th, 2024

Because the weather has literally been a joke in the MLB, this is the third time that they’re going to try and get this game off of the ground. We’re going to examine game one of the double-header between the New York Mets and Detroit Tigers, where we see Adrian Houser taking on Casey Mize. 

While our Sharp App Money Handles tool doesn’t necessarily give us any indication as to how this game may go, the advanced statistics and “nitty gritty” shows us that the New York Mets are ripe for their first win of the season and are in a great place to cash out against a team that hasn’t LOST a game. 

Casey Mize, who is on the mound for the Detroit Tigers, hasn’t pitched a game in nearly two seasons. In this house, we fade rookies in their first games, and while Mize isn’t a rookie, he doesn’t have a whole lot of experience in the MLB, with just one full season under his belt over four eligible seasons. He’s going to be on a leash in this one, too, and we just don’t have enough data to support that he’s going to be effective at the big league level once again. 

On the other side is SP Adrian Houser, who spent last season with the Milwaukee Brewers. While the conditions in today’s game could still be a little rough (the O/U is set at 7.5), Houser poses a significant advantage, in that he’s literally unbeatable during the daytime. Last season, he went a whopping 5-0 during the daytime, with a WHIP of 1.19 and only seventeen earned runs over 44 innings. His biggest problem has always been the long ball, and with today’s game conditions, I believe that this is a no-brainer to bank on. 

The Mets’ offense has been really stagnant, but progression to the mean is going to happen with this team. Both of these teams have had a number of days to rest up, and Houser doesn’t allow a whole lot of free passes. 

Let’s take the Mets in the first game of their double-header on the moneyline, and hopefully they can pull out their first win of the season. 

PICK: New York Mets G1 Moneyline

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