MLB Bet of the Day | April 27, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 36-33-1, +1.22u
RECAP: On our MLB of the Day, we officially had our first push of the season, as SEVEN RUNS WERE SCORED IN THE BOTTOM OF THE NINTH TO LOSE. I literally couldn’t believe it. If that massacre doesn’t go down, we’re looking at a super profitable day. In any case, that play pushes and voids, and we nailed the Washington Nationals as a plus-money winner to gain 1.1 units on the day, and push us further into the profit land. 

April 27th, 2024

Okay, is it a cop-out if I literally use a lot of the same analysis today as I did yesterday? We got screwed out of a pick yesterday, and today, we’re seeing literally the same circumstances. The AL Central is a breeding ground for unders historically and today is no different, especially considering this pitching matchup and the field. 

The wind is going to be blowing in from the right in today’s contest in Comerica, and it’s something that Tigers starting pitcher Casey Mize should benefit from. Over his last five starts, the Tigers are 5-0 and the under has hit in four out of those five games. Every time the under has been at 8, it’s hit in those situations; and Mize has been molding into the pitcher we all thought he would be. And while the Royals have roughed him up in the past, he’s lowered pretty much every advanced stat in the book, and is exhibiting signs of improvement in multiple places where he’s fallen short. 

Brady Singer is on the other side, and even though he’s fairly young, he’s also shown that he can dominate this Tigers lineup. He’s held them to an xBA of .228 and an average launch angle of -0.4, meaning that he induces SO MANY ground balls against them. Through his last five starts, he’s been REALLY good overall and this Tigers lineup, like we talked about yesterday, is literally averaging less than three runs at home against righties this season. 

The Royals are on the same boat, as they’ve struggled heavily with righties on the road, not faring much better than the Tigers in the hitting department. Yesterday was an anomaly for this team, who was dominated for literally eight innings. It’s rare that this momentum would carry over. 

Let’s take the under in this game between two starting pitchers who have been really, really dominant in these situations in the past. Mize is going to have himself a prove-it game, and Singer is going to pitch par for the course. Let’s also remember that these bullpens are generally really high-quality. Cha-cha again, let’s take the under. 

PICK: Kansas City / Detroit under 8

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