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MLB Bet of the Day | April 13, 2024

Mitch S
Mitch S
In this column, Mitch goes through the BEST BET he's seeing in the MLB today.

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 18-21, -4.04u
RECAP: We took the day off from the MLB of the Day, and yesterday was our first profitable day in a couple of days, thanks to two hits on two totals in the Milwaukee and Kansas City games. Today, we have a massive slate and will be looking to make some significant progress on our freefall that we’ve recently been a part of. 

April 13th, 2024

Both of these teams have had relatively rough starts, but we’re going into a breakdown of a league-wide trend that has started to emerge this season, and we’re going to use that to back why we’re taking this pick today. 

The San Francisco Giants are in Tampa Bay today in the second game of their three-game set against the Rays, and we’re going to see an intriguing matchup between two pitchers with storylines big enough to fit a book. Logan Webb is the ace of the Giants, but has relatively struggled when you look at his expected numbers; Ryan Pepiot, one of the cornerstones of the Glasnow trade, will oppose him, looking to bounce back from the last time he was at home, where he was shelled for six earned runs. 

But these offenses are actually part of what we’re going to take today; the Rays haven’t proven that they can score runs at home, let alone against right-handed pitching at home. So far this season, they’re averaging a measly 3.6 runs per game with an average near .200. Yet, the Giants, on the road this season, have been on fire, averaging close to .250 and putting up at least five runs per game – and it increases even more when we look at their averages against righties. Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee have really made themselves at home this season, with among the highest xBA in the pool of qualified hitters. 

But, the biggest fade here has actually nothing to do with these specific teams; it has to do with the home dog status. The Giants are favored in this game because of Logan Webb; he’s pretty much the only reason. Yet, home underdogs this season are winning at a clip just above 33%; away favorites are just above 66%. When a team is favored and are away, they are way more likely to get the win, and that’s the exact formula we have today in this game. 

Let’s take the away team after their tough loss yesterday, and hammer them to take the win today with their ace on the mound. You can still get a really nice price on this play, as I got it around -110 – you can probably get it for around there as well. 

PICK: San Francisco Giants ML

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