Mitch's MLB Bet of the Day | September 25, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of other picks I also like for today. 

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 156-113-4, +41.10
RECAP: We had the Under in the Boston/White Sox game two days ago, which ended 1-0 - we’ve been on an incredible tear during our MLB picks, going a whopping 10-2 over our last 12 picks. Secretly, September has turned into a sneaky-good month for us in the MLB, which can’t be said for most. Let’s get into it.

September 25, 2023

PICK: San Diego Padres ML
While you’re watching Monday Night Football, I’m going to be watching this duel of the aces in San Francisco, as the Giants (and Logan Webb) host the San Diego Padres (and Blake Snell).

There’s not a hotter pitcher on the planet than Blake Snell right now, and so let’s talk about this stretch he’s gone on to solidify the Cy Young race in his favor. In his last five starts, the Padres are 5–0, the Under has hit 4 out of 5 times, and he’s given up eleven total hits. Over his last forty-two innings of work, he’s given up ELEVEN TOTAL HITS. That’s it. He threw a seven-inning no-hitter last time he pitched, and he’s literally willing this team to playoff contention - the Padres are 9-1 in their last ten games. 

Simply put, both the Padres and Giants have to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive, and Logan Webb just hasn’t had it recently, despite a 1.80 ERA over his last five starts. The Giants are freefalling, going 2-8 in their last 10 games, and have lost four out of their last five Webb starts. 

I’ll admit it though, the Giants hit lefties pretty well - over their last ten starts against lefties they’re hitting .254 - but this Padres lineup is scoring at a rate it hasn’t seen all season. The Padres are second in the league in runs scored over their past 15 games (big sample size) and rank FIRST in OPS over that stretch. They’re averaging nearly five runs per game against righties over their last ten games, too. 

I’m not saying that this isn’t going to be close - the oddsmakers are making that abundantly clear, as you can currently get the Padres for -108 - but sometimes, big time players ball out when they need to. The Padres need Snell to capture the Cy Young tonight, and I think he does it, even on the road.

Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using the following link: Mitch S

Join Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!