Mitch's MLB Bet of the Day | September 23, 2023
In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of other picks I also like for today. If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport.
OVERALL RECORD: 155-113-4, +40.14RECAP: We’ve cashed two in a row with the Rangers winning last night, but oh my god did the Baltimore game put me in a coma. I had them ML, and when they took the lead in the ninth, I nearly crapped my pants; only for lights out Cano to give up a two-run double in the bottom half to lose. I am broken. That game might have broken me.
September 23, 2023PICK: CWS/BOS u8.5This pick comes to the stage as a must-play for me because of the pitchers on the mound, and even though the conditions at the park make for a possible over play, I think that the books have already taken this into account. These offenses could starve today.
The White Sox are starting ace Dylan Cease, who has cashed in for us before, but I love this matchup with the Red Sox. Today might be the day that the Red Sox break out of their offensive slump, but with the weather conditions and the pitch types that he throws, he could throw them for a loop. He’s got a high-quality four-seam that has been torturing Red Sox hitters over their last ten games, and a slider to boot. I have him going six innings and allowing less than three earned runs today for a quality start, and a large part of it is because of the struggling offense of the Sox.
The Red Sox unders have hit in 7 out of their last 10 games, and it’s because of their incredibly slumping offense; over their last ten games against righties, they’re averaging only three runs per game and are hitting .211 – that’s a lot of at-bats to use as data, and very little success. Now, the White Sox aren’t much better against righties like Nick Pivetta today, averaging only four runs per game against his handed-ness. And the CWS struggle mightily against Pivetta’s bread and butter, which are his cutter and slider. He’ll use those to put batters away, and I like for them to strike out a lot today.
This White Sox offense has been inept all season long, but has been amplified as of late. In their last ten games away from home, they’ve only been averaging .233 and an On-Base average of .285. If you didn’t know, that’s just not good, haha. The White Sox and Red Sox are both in the bottom six teams in runs per game over the last 15 games of the season.
Because of the conditions, and both of these pitchers’ high-quality starts over the last few weeks, we have to take the under here; it’s a line that’s been trending down from O/U 9 this morning, to 8.5. Continue to take the under, as you can get it at plus-money right now.
Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using the following link: Mitch SJoin Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!