Mitch's MLB Bet of the Day | October 20, 2023
In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of other picks I also like for today. If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport.
PLAYOFF RECORD: 8-6, +2.36uRECAP: Look, the Phillies and the Diamondbacks had an awesome game yesterday, so I’m all in on this series, no matter what. I love the way that Arizona was able to grind it out yesterday, but these two teams are gassed; and it’s going to come down to experience and depth in this series, now that we’ve turned a corner at 2-1. Let’s analyze this game, again.
October 20, 2023PICK: Philadelphia Phillies MLWell, I didn't even have to edit that line above. We’re rocking with the Phillies again today against a bullpen-game Arizona Diamondbacks, who will probably lean on Kyle Nelson to eat up a bulk of the innings today.
The Phillies are throwing out Christopher Sanchez, who will probably be good to give the Phillies 3-4 innings today, despite him not being the most lights-out pitcher; my guess would be that they head over to Matt Strahm after him, and then get the ball rolling again. These two teams are desperately tired, and they don’t have a ton of arms in the bullpen to throw today, after using most of their arms last night in that low-scoring shootout, where Arizona seemed destined to steal one; but that’s all it was. It was a game that was stolen, because the rest of this series is going to rely on depth and experience, of which the Phillies have a multitude of.
To top it all off, Christopher Sanchez isn’t a bum of a starter, either; he’s been lights-out at times this season, and if he is able to hold the Diamondbacks under three runs or so, we should be good to cash this bet, because this Phillies offense has been on fire, and should continue to be so today.
Plus, the Diamondbacks really struggle against lefties; over their past five games against lefties, they haven’t been able to score whatsoever, and this handed-ness has stifled them all season long, actually.
Finally, the Phillies offense cooled off yesterday, but should be in a bounce-back position today. Over their past ten games of the playoffs, they’re averaging (as a team) eight runs per game against lefties, and if Kyle Nelson is leaned upon, we should expect a bloodbath from the Phillies side of the ball, particularly from Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Nick Castellanos, who have shown proficient marks against that handed-ness towards the second-half of the season.
Sometimes in MLB Playoff series’, there are throwaway games, and today is a throwaway game for both teams. The Phillies have more pitching depth and experience, and let’s ride with them today on the moneyline.
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