Mitch's MLB Bet of the Day | October 19, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of other picks I also like for today. 

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PLAYOFF RECORD: 8-5, +3.36u
RECAP: Last night was a great win, as we hit on two plus-money plays - Yordan Alvarez RBI’s, and Houston ML - while my MLB of the Day lost. While this doesn’t happen often, it’s just another reason to become a PRO Subscriber, and get all of my plays every single day! Use the link all the way at the bottom of this article to sign up using my code, and get 20% off!

October 19, 2023

PICK: Philadelphia Phillies ML
Will the vibes pick up where they left off for the Phillies, or will a new vibe come in steal the show this afternoon? The Diamondbacks have their backs against the wall - I believe that a lot of people will look to them to win this game and get back to where they started against the Dodgers - the Sharp App disagrees, and we’re going to ride with the consistency of the Phillies in this one. 

The Phillies know better than to let them back into this series, and Ranger Suarez, starting pitcher for the Phillies today, knows that there’s a lot at stake if they open the door. Strange stats: the Phillies have been winning after the fifth inning in each of their past eight games, and it’s because of their starting pitching. The last time Suarez pitched, which was a full week ago, he absolutely dominated the Braves over five innings. In fact, the Phillies haven’t lost in their last five games with Suarez on the mound. 

On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt has been surprisingly competent as a starter, and has given his team three-ish innings in each of his playoff starts. The story of this series, though, has developed into how poor the Diamondbacks’ bullpen has been, and I anticipate that to be the case once again today - you’d be hard pressed to find a reliever who doesn’t have a crazy ERA over their last three starts. 

Plus, these bats are just hot, and the Phillies are an anomaly. Over their past eight games (the entirety of the MLB Playoffs), they’re averaging nearly six runs per game and have been able to hold their opponents to just 1.62 runs per game. Their pitching has been exemplary, and you’d better believe that they’re still going to come to Arizona with their hot bats. 

Let’s ride the absolute hottest team in baseball to a win today, and then go and enjoy the night game after that.

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