Mitch's MLB Bet of the Day | October 18, 2023
In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of other picks I also like for today. If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport.
PLAYOFF RECORD: 6-4, +1.71uRECAP: That was easy! The Phillies powered us to an over as they skyrocketed the score in the later innings of the game, after Merrill Kelly was kicked out of the game. The DBacks bullpen hasn’t been good in this series whatsoever, and we were able to hammer that over fairly easily yesterday; we love when they come easy to us! Let’s keep it moving tonight.
October 18, 2023PICK: Astros/Rangers u9.5Rangers SP Max Scherzer is back, which is obviously going to eat up storylines (and has, surprisingly pushed a TON of money over to the Astros ML, as no one trusts him coming back from injury), but the real storyline is the opposing pitcher for the Astros, who has quietly had one of the most dominant postseason careers of any pitcher over the last five years.
Astros SP Cristian Javier was BAD this season, and then the playoffs hit, and he’s back to his usual self. Let’s break down a few of his postseason numbers: he’s 5-1 overall, has allowed more than two earned runs in a game just ONCE over his fifteen postseason starts, and has an ERA of 1.91. In fact, over his nearly forty career postseason innings, he’s racked up only eight earned runs total, and has struck out 57 batters in that span. Wow.
But getting back to the Sharp App, we have significant money coming in on the under overnight. PRO Subscribers (LINK BELOW) have access to our money handles calculator for every single game for every single sport we offer, and if you look as of writing, only 20% of the bets are on the under 9 in this game; but it holds nearly fifty percent of the handle. Less than twenty percent of the bets but more than 50% of the money is a steal in my opinion, and that’s why we’re hopping on this number, because it’s bound to go down.
Finally, let’s talk about Scherz. He’s appearing in his first postseason appearance this season, and has had a dominant career in the postseason. With that being said, though, he’s coming back from injury and is likely expected to be on a pitch count. The last time he faced Houston he was abysmal, giving up seven earned runs and getting kicked out of the game, but this is one of the best pitchers we’ve ever seen we’re talking about; he’s going to be nails tonight, for however long they keep him in.
Let’s ride with these starters tonight and keep this high total down, as the Sharp App projects a line of 8.5. Let’s get the value while we can, and take the under.
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