Mitch's MLB Bet of the Day | October 17, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of other picks I also like for today. 

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PLAYOFF RECORD: 5-4, +.86u
RECAP: The MLB Playoffs have not been exactly kind to us, as we’ve been up and down all postseason, getting as hot as up nearly four units, but then plummeting back down during the Division Series & Championship Series. Yesterday we swung and missed on two model plays, but today, we’ve got one that our models like, and I also love, too.

October 17, 2023

PICK: DBacks/Phillies o7.5
Let’s hope for more bops in CBP. No, but really, this is a model play for me, and a lot of it has to do with the timeframes of these pitchers on the mound, and when the last time they pitched was. 

Our Sharp App projections show this game as a projected over/under of 8.5, which would obviously mean that we should take the over. But, in a deep dive within the money and stats on this game, the over seems like a more surefire pick; but one that the public loves, which is always scary. Let’s dive in. 

Merrill Kelly hasn’t pitched in ten days, which has resulted in a lot of rust for the pitcher, who was lights-out in Dodger Stadium during his last playoff series. He didn’t have a chance at all to pitch against the Brewers, and he’s essentially had just one start in the past seventeen days - which is absolutely wild as a starting pitcher. While some may say that’s good rest, especially at the end of the season, it’s all about momentum in the playoffs, and Kelly has just about none. 

On the flip side, though, is Aaron Nola, who has pitched relatively well throughout these playoffs, but he’s pitched often. Nola is 5-0 in his last five starts, and has been a workhorse for the Phils; but this may be a letdown spot, especially with the DBacks hungry to tie this series up. 

These offenses, also, have just been on fire. Over their last five games (heck, ten if you want to go back that far) they’ve both been averaging around five runs per game against right-handed pitching, and that includes seven hits per game, and nearly two home runs per game during that stretch (more for the Phillies). 

All we need is the Phillies to start hot against a rusty pitcher, and the rest of the game will come into focus. Our model expects en eight-to-nine run game or so, and I’m inclined to believe it. Take the over.

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