Mitch's Lock Bet (MLB) of the Day | March 31, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of other picks I also like for today. 

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RECORD: 1-0
RECAP: 1-0 feels good, that’s for sure. Tampa Bay did exactly what I expected them to do, as they shut down the Tigers - as I’ve explained before, good teams tend to cover these spreads. McClanahan is a name to continue to look at as the season progresses, because I think we’ll be cashing out a few wins on Tampa because of him this season. As a side note: those Devil Ray jerseys… whew. Those are hot.

MARCH 31, 2023

PICK: Christian Javier 6+K’s/Houston ML
A note about today’s pick: it is NOT Javier OVER 6.5, which is what is in most books. It’ll be discussed below as to why, but it’s an alternate strikeout line, parlayed with a ML win for Houston. I don't normally do parlays, but I didn't want the pick to be too juiced. Seemed like cheating.

A quick tangent: I think that Christian Javier is truly a Cy Young candidate this year. His metrics are incredible; his K% and xBA are both immaculate, as he ranks 21st in all of baseball in strikeout percentile. He’s someone who I’ve watched a lot of film on, and is LITERALLY the reason why Houston was fine with Verlander leaving; they had another Verlander in their back pocket.

My projections, based on statistics from last year, have him at a minimum of about 5.94 strikeouts against this Chicago team, which is why we’re sticking with the alternate line. Last season, and yesterday, Chicago was a team that didn’t strike out a whole lot, but they are not a team that I expect to be able to lay off of Javier’s sliders; his whiff percentage is one of the best in the league at 30%.

Truly, I think this game will be competitive, as P Lance Lynn is no slouch either, and boasts a lot of the same calling cards as Javier does. Not a single player on CWS has had any amount of success against him in the past, so let’s look for him to get his K’s, and the Houston Astros to win.

Other Picks I Like:
*Colorado/San Diego O7.5

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