Mitch's Lock Bet (MLB) of the Day | March 30, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of other picks I also like for today. 
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MARCH 30, 2023 | OPENING DAY
PICK: TAMPA BAY RAYS -1.5

On Opening Day, the lines can be some of the most volatile of the season. Very rarely, especially early in the season, will we see a spread that is above 1.5; for this reason, we want to take some heavy favorites with a clear history of success, such as the matchup today in Tampa Bay. 

McClanahan is among the best pitchers in the league (someone who squares would see and think, huh?), as his K%, BB%, and xBA are among the top 5-10% in the league. He faces a Detroit lineup that exhibits high whiff percentage, featuring free-swingers Javier Baez, Riley Greene, and Eric Haase. 

As well, the Rays don’t strike out much; they were ranked second in the league in strikeout percentage, a good indication that P Eduardo Rodriguez isn’t going to fool them much. Rodriguez features a repertoire that gives opponents some of the highest xBA and xwOBA in all of baseball. 

Finally, in their seven games last season, the Rays beat the Tigers by more than one run in five of them; and the last time Rodriguez faced this team, he let up a .800 BA and got shelled, albeit he was pulled for injury.

Look for Tampa to win by a couple of runs today to begin their campaign. 

Other Picks I Like:
*Boston ML
*Los Angeles Dodgers/Arizona U7.5

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