Mitch's Lock Bet (MLB) of the Day | April 25, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of other picks I also like for today. 

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RECORD: 11-13, -1.42U
RECAP: I’m facing an uphill battle here; while we’ve been making very small profits every day, my biggest bet of the day has been a loser in the past few. Austin Gomber turned into Jacob deGrom yesterday and diced the Guardians at home, and Cleveland (beautiful stadium, but I now hate them) is now on my do-not-bet list, entering territory with the White Sox. The AL Central should just be avoided at all costs, I think.

April 25, 2023

PICK: CHC Team Total Runs o3.5
I know, this is a weird pick. But we’ve got to get over the hump, and I think that there’s significant value in the Chicago Cubs offense today.

Chicago is welcoming San Diego to town on the back of a letdown series against the Dodgers. Blake Snell is on the bump for the Padres, as he’s yet to pick up a win this season. In his four starts on the season, Snell has let up 3 or more runs four times, and the Padres as a team have given up 7 runs to the Rockies, 7 to the Braves, 5 runs to the Mets, and most recently 8 runs to the Braves. The San Diego Padres have a reliever ERA of nearly 5, and four is a small number to get to as they look to get a win with Steele on the mound (DOG, by the way).

The Cubs offense as well has been really solid to start this season. Backed by the long ball, Patrick Wisdom, Nico Hoerner, and Ian Happ have carried this offense, and they’ve teed off lefties so far this season, most notably against Julio Urias just a couple of days ago. Snell has an ERA over 7 away, and this offense should look to play well against the lefty. And, against the NL West this season, they have a Slugging % near .500. Against lefties this year, they have an average of .286. That’s one of the best in the league vs. lefties.

There’s not much more to say than this team can score, and is averaging nearly six runs per game this season. They just need four today, and let’s expect them to do so. I need it, bad.

Other Picks I Like:
Seattle ML (-120)
Cortes u6.5 K’s (-132)

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