Mitch's Lock Bet (MLB) of the Day | April 1, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of other picks I also like for today. 

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RECORD: 2-0, +2.60U
RECAP: They made us sweat it out, but Houston came through with the win on the Sox’s questionable bullpen. Not to toot my own horn, but the move from O6.5K’s to just 6K’s was the move to make yesterday’s parlay work; Javier is a phenomenal pitcher and a K-Artist, but Chicago is an incredibly disciplined team. We’ll remember both of these things as we progress, but for the moment, we’re riding a nice high to start the MLB season.

April 1, 2023

PICK: Baltimore/Boston U9.5
“But they scored 19 runs last game! How do you not think that they’re going to score more than ten runs today?”

Okay, buddy, calm down. This is exactly what I mean when I say that baseball is a day-to-day sport; it depends on their pitching, and how much soft contact happens during the course of a game. So, let’s break it down.

Dean Kremer, the starting pitcher for the Baltimore Orioles, went 16-5 on the Under in games that he was the starting pitcher last season. He pitched great against Boston last year, as well, despite losses. Baltimore and Boston, as well, have really improved bullpens. Boston has many players that have never seen Kremer, as well; which makes for a recipe for a dominant day.

Chris Sale is also historically dominant on his first start of the year. I’d look for him to be dominant, and the sportsbooks are also expecting him to rack up the K’s; he’s projected, according to our model, at about seven strikeouts. Baltimore’s current roster has STRUGGLED against Sale in his career, only eight hits have accumulated against him on this current roster. They haven’t historically been able to hit him.

Overall, I just don’t expect them to score today, much at all. It’s going to be windy in Boston and the weather will absolutely affect how far the balls will fly. Let’s take the UNDER in runs, as these starters will look to shut down these two up-and-down offenses today.

Other Picks I Like:
*Philadelphia ML
*Strider O6.5 K’s

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