Sharp App: Sports Betting

Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins Matchup Preview - April 4th, 2023

Right-hander Kenta Maeda is expected to start today for Minnesota, while right-hander Sandy Alcantara gets the nod at home for Miami. Alcantara enters this contest with a 4.76 ERA, backed up by a 4.85 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Alcantara's last start was against the Mets, when the Marlins lost 3-5. Over 5.2 innings pitched, he allowed 3 earned runs with 3 hits. He also recorded 2 strikeouts with 4 walks.

Minnesota Twins Insights

  • Kenta Maeda will have the handedness advantage against 7 opposing batters in this matchup.

  • Joey Gallo's quickness has declined this year. His 27.14 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.48 ft/sec now.

  • The Minnesota Twins (24.3 K%, per The Sharp Model X) project to have the 5th-most strikeout-heavy lineup today.

Miami Marlins Insights

  • Sandy Alcantara's 97.1 mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 97th percentile among starting pitchers.

  • Bryan De La Cruz has been unlucky with his batting average since the start of last season; his .253 mark is quite a bit lower than his .301 Expected Batting Average (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in MLB, via The Sharp Model.

Betting Trends

  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 44 of their last 77 away games (+10.25 Units / 11% ROI)

  • Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)