Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Matchup Preview - September 22nd, 2022


Nick Gordon and the Twins go head-to-head against MJ Melendez and the Royals today. Over the last 7 days, Nick Gordon has provided the bulk of the offense for Twins. He's batted .320 with 4 runs, 7 RBIs, and 3 home runs. Meanwhile, it's been MJ Melendez who has been hot for the Royals. Over the last week, he's batting .292 with 8 runs, 5 RBIs, 2 home runs, and 1 stolen bases.

Minnesota Twins Insights

  • Josh Winder has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 11.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

  • Gary Sanchez has been unlucky with his home runs this year; his 19.80 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit lower than his 32.30 Expected HR/600 (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • Today’s version of the Twins projected offense is a bit watered down, as their .300 The Sharp Model X wOBA is considerably below their .315 overall projected rate.

Kansas City Royals Insights

  • Jon Heasley has been lucky with his ERA this year; his 5.09 figure is quite a bit lower than his 5.86 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

  • Hunter Dozier has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.

  • The Kansas City Royals bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst in the majors, according to THE BAT.

Betting Trends

  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+3.55 Units / 28% ROI)

  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 55 games (+3.50 Units / 5% ROI)

  • Kyle Isbel has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+8.00 Units / 37% ROI)