Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Matchup Preview - April 1st, 2023

Right-hander Sonny Gray is expected to start today for Minnesota, while right-hander Jordan Lyles gets the nod at home for Kansas City. The last time Sonny Gray was on the bump, he suffered the loss as the Twins lost 4-11 against the Guardians. He left allowing 4 earned runs and recording 1 strikeout with 1 walk. Lyles's last start was against the Yankees, when he recorded the win as the Orioles were victorious 2-1. Over 7 innings pitched, he allowed 1 earned run with 4 hits. He also recorded 9 strikeouts with 1 walk.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Sonny Gray has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 7.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

• The Kansas City Royals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• The Minnesota Twins bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in MLB, per The Sharp Model.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Jordan Lyles in the 19th percentile when assessing his strikeout talent.

• Michael Massey has been unlucky with his home runs since the start of last season; his 12.10 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit lower than his 28.20 Expected HR/600 (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

• Nicky Lopez has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44.2%) and will be challenged by MLB's 4th-deepest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

• Gary Sanchez has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+1.70 Units / 170% ROI)