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Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Matchup Preview - September 22nd, 2022


Brandon Woodruff (12th ranked SP via THE BAT) is projected to take the mound for Brewers as they battle the Reds and Hunter Greene (73rd ranked SP) at Great American Ball Park. The quick scouting report on Woodruff: his main fastball is a four-seamer, which he uses 38.2% of the time. His primary out-pitch is a changeup (15.9%). Meanwhile, Greene primarily throws a four-seamer fastball (53.2%) and his most-used secondary offering is his slider (41.7%). The Sharp Model X projects Woodruff for 2.2 earned runs and 7.4 strikeouts in this matchup. On the other side, Greene is forecasted for 2.7 earned runs and 6.4 strikeouts.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

  • Brandon Woodruff has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 4.7 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

  • Andrew McCutchen has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (92% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.

  • Rowdy Tellez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and faces the league's 11th-deepest CF fences today.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

  • Hunter Greene has been unlucky this year, putting up a 4.97 ERA despite The Sharp Model estimating his true talent level to be 3.90 — a 1.07 gap.

  • Spencer Steer's average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 81.8-mph seasonal average has dropped to 67.7-mph over the past two weeks.

  • The Cincinnati Reds projected batting order today (.287 projected wOBA per The Sharp Model X) projects quite a bit worse than their .300 wOBA this year.

Betting Trends

  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 63 games (+5.35 Units / 8% ROI)

  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.10 Units / 32% ROI)

  • Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 56 away games (+9.10 Units / 12% ROI)


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