Sharp App: Sports Betting

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Matchup Preview - April 10th, 2023

Today's contest between the D-Backs and the Brewers pits The Sharp Model's 178th ranked SP (Wade Miley) against the 25th ranked SP (Zac Gallen). The rundown on Miley tells us that he leans on his cut-fastball 42.4% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a changeup (31.1%). Gallen is a four-seam guy (48.1%) who brings a curveball as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Miley deserves something like a 2.73 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 0.00. On that front, Gallen's ERA sits at 7.59 and his FIP at 4.92.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

  • Wade Miley has averaged 13.1 outs per start since the start of last season, ranking in the 23rd percentile.

  • William Contreras has been lucky with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .367 mark is quite a bit higher than his .322 Expected wOBA (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • Projected catcher William Contreras profiles as a weak pitch framer, according to The Sharp Model projection system.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Zac Gallen in the 90th percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.

  • Geraldo Perdomo's 2.2% Barrel% is in the 6th percentile since the start of last season.

  • Arizona's 88.1-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball: #24 overall.

Betting Trends

  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 72 of their last 169 games (+27.90 Units / 15% ROI)