Sharp App: Sports Betting

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Matchup Preview - April 7th, 2023

The Miami Marlins will faceoff in a day game against the New York Mets at Citi Field. The Marlins offense will be led by Jorge Soler, who ranks as the #65th-best hitter in baseball according to The Sharp Model X. Given Jorge Soler's profile and today's matchup specifics, The Sharp Model X expects him to average a .291 wOBA, .198 AVG, and .19 HRs. On the other side, Pete Alonso (The Sharp Model X's #14th hitter in MLB) will bolster the Mets lineup. He projects for a .365 wOBA, .246 AVG, and .21 HRs.

Miami Marlins Insights

  • The Sharp Model X projects Edward Cabrera to throw 83 pitches today (3rd-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

  • The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Luis Arraez stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

  • Miami's 88.1-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the worst in MLB: #24 overall.

New York Mets Insights

  • Tylor Megill will have the handedness advantage over 6 opposing hitters today.

  • Pete Alonso has been lucky with his home runs since the start of last season; his 36.10 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is quite a bit higher than his 29.60 Expected HR/600 (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • Tomas Nido hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (42% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's shallowest CF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 51 of their last 81 games at home (+22.55 Units / 15% ROI)

  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 away games (+9.15 Units / 28% ROI)

  • Starling Marte has hit the Hits Under in his last game (+1.85 Units / 185% ROI)