Mets vs Phillies Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - September 21st, 2023
On September 21, 2023, the Philadelphia Phillies will take on the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. This National League East matchup features the Phillies as the home team and the Mets as the away team.
The Phillies currently hold the second place in the NL East standings, while the Mets sit in fourth place. Although the Phillies have been mathematically eliminated from winning the division, they are still in possession of a Wild Card spot and hold a 4.0 game lead in the race. The Mets, on the other hand, have also been eliminated from the division race and face an uphill battle to make the playoffs.
The Phillies have had an above-average season with a record of 83-69, ranking them as the 12th best team in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Their offense has been strong, ranking 6th in the league. Trea Turner has been their standout hitter, contributing with 97 runs, 26 home runs, and 28 stolen bases.
The Mets, with a record of 71-81, are having a below-average season. Their offense ranks 18th in MLB, and Francisco Lindor has been their best hitter, tallying 99 runs, 88 RBIs, and 26 home runs.
The pitching matchup for this game features left-handed pitchers. The Phillies will start Ranger Suarez, who has been an above-average pitcher this season according to our Power Rankings. Suarez has a 3-6 record with a 3.80 ERA. However, peripheral indicators such as SIERA and xERA suggest that he has been lucky and may regress going forward.
The Mets will counter with David Peterson, who has struggled this season with a 3-8 record and a 5.22 ERA. However, his xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may perform better in the future.
Based on the projections, Suarez is expected to pitch around 6.0 innings and allow an average of 2.3 earned runs, while Peterson is projected for around 5.4 innings and 2.8 earned runs. The Phillies have a higher projected team total of 4.75 runs compared to the Mets' 3.93 runs.
In their last game, the Phillies defeated the Braves with a score of 6-5, while the Mets secured an 8-3 victory over the Marlins. The Phillies were underdogs in their last game, with a closing Moneyline price of +125 and an implied win probability of 43%. The Mets were slight favorites with a closing Moneyline price of +105 and an implied win probability of 47%.
The Phillies enter this game as the betting favorites with a current moneyline of -160 and an implied win probability of 60%. The Sharp Model X, the leading MLB projection system, also favors the Phillies with a projected win probability of 62%. The Mets, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +140 and an implied win probability of 40%.
With the Phillies having the advantage in the standings, offensive rankings, and pitching matchup, they are expected to come out on top in this game. However, as with any baseball game, anything can happen, and the Mets will be looking to play spoiler and defy the odds.
Mets Insights
The leading projection system (The Sharp Model X) forecasts that the New York Mets will score 3.93 runs on average in this matchup: the least of all teams in action today.
Phillies Insights
According to the leading projection system (The Sharp Model X), the projected offense for the Philadelphia Phillies owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .315, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .334 this year.
Betting Trends
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 44 games (+6.60 Units / 14% ROI)
The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 139 games (+16.45 Units / 11% ROI)