Sharp App: Sports Betting

Mariners vs Reds Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - September 4th, 2023

The Cincinnati Reds are scheduled to face off against the Seattle Mariners on September 4, 2023, at Great American Ball Park. This Interleague matchup will have the Reds as the home team and the Mariners as the away team.

In terms of standings, the Mariners are currently in first place in the NL Central, a position that guarantees them a spot in the playoffs. On the other hand, the Reds are in third place in the AL West. Despite being 0 games back in the Wild Card hunt, the Reds have not secured a playoff spot.

The Reds have a season record of 71-68, which can be considered average, while the Mariners have been performing well with a record of 77-59. The Reds have actually exceeded expectations this year.

Tejay Antone is projected to start as the Reds' pitcher, while the Mariners will likely start Bryan Woo. Antone is a right-handed pitcher, ranked as the #94 best starting pitcher in MLB, while Woo is also a right-handed pitcher, ranked at #79.

Based on the projections, Antone is expected to pitch an average of 1.7 innings, allowing 1.1 earned runs, striking out 1.5 batters, and allowing 1.8 hits and walks, which is less than desirable. On the other hand, Woo is projected to pitch 4.7 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, striking out 4.9 batters, and allowing 4.9 hits and walks, which is also not ideal.

The Reds had a tough loss in their last game against the Cubs, with a score of 15-7. The Mariners also faced a defeat against the Mets, with a score of 6-3.

According to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Reds are ranked as the #11 best team in MLB, while the Mariners are only ranked at #24. However, the Mariners have the #5 best record in MLB this season.

In terms of offense, the Reds have a solid ranking as the #17 best in MLB, with a team batting average and home run ranking of #14. They excel in stolen bases, ranking #1 in MLB. On the other hand, the Mariners have an average offense, ranking at #11 overall, but with a lower team batting average ranking at #24.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Reds' ranking is #27, considered to be very bad, while the Mariners have the #10 best bullpen in MLB, considered to be good.

The Reds' best hitter this season has been Spencer Steer, who has played in 134 games, recorded 73 RBIs, 19 home runs, and 12 stolen bases. The Mariners' best hitter, Julio Rodriguez, has played in 129 games, recorded 83 runs, 88 RBIs, 24 home runs, and 36 stolen bases.

Today's game is expected to be high-scoring, with a Game Total of 10.5 runs. The Mariners are favored with a moneyline of -160, implying a win probability of 60%, while the Reds are underdogs with a moneyline of +140, implying a win probability of 40%. However, The Sharp Model X projects the Reds to have a win probability of 45%, suggesting that there may be value in betting on the Reds as underdogs.

Mariners Insights

  • The leading projection system (The Sharp Model X) expects Bryan Woo to be on a pitch count in today's game, projecting a maximum of 85 pitches.

  • Ty France is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

  • Mike Ford pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.2% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Reds Insights

  • T.J. Friedl's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 89-mph figure last year has fallen to 86.2-mph.

  • The 5th-weakest projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.

Betting Trends

  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 59 of their last 91 games (+19.95 Units / 16% ROI)

  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 40 games (+15.05 Units / 25% ROI)

  • Ty France has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 36 games (+11.60 Units / 16% ROI)