Sharp App: Sports Betting

Mariners vs Rangers Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - September 22nd, 2023

In a highly-anticipated American League West matchup, the Texas Rangers will be hosting the Seattle Mariners on September 22, 2023, at Globe Life Field. The Rangers, currently in 3rd place in the AL West, are vying for a Wild Card spot, while the Mariners, in 2nd place, are currently holding onto a Wild Card position. Both teams are in a close race for first place in the division, as there are no games separating them.

The Rangers have been having a successful season with a record of 84-68. Led by their best hitter, Marcus Semien, who has been a consistent force in the lineup, they boast the 3rd best offense in MLB. Semien has played in 152 games, recording 115 runs, 95 RBIs, 25 home runs, and 14 stolen bases while maintaining a .279 batting average and .824 OPS.

On the other hand, the Mariners have also had a good season with an identical record of 84-68. Their best hitter, Julio Rodriguez, has been a key contributor, playing in 145 games and tallying 97 runs, 100 RBIs, 31 home runs, and 36 stolen bases. Rodriguez has displayed a .285 batting average and an impressive .841 OPS.

The pitching matchup will feature Dane Dunning for the Rangers and Bryce Miller for the Mariners. Dunning, a right-handed pitcher, has started 23 games this season, accumulating a 10-6 record with a 3.78 ERA. However, his peripheral indicator, 4.43 xFIP, suggests that he may have been lucky this year and could perform worse going forward.

Miller, also a right-handed pitcher, has started 23 games with an 8-5 record and a 3.88 ERA. Similar to Dunning, Miller's 4.68 xERA indicates that he may have been fortunate this season and could see a decline in performance.

In terms of projections, Dunning is expected to pitch an average of 5.4 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs, and striking out 4.8 batters. He is projected to struggle with giving up 5.7 hits and walks on average. On the other side, Miller is projected to pitch 4.8 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs, and striking out 4.4 batters. He may also struggle with 5.2 hits and walks on average.

In terms of team rankings, the Rangers have the 9th best record in MLB. However, according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, they are considered the 28th best team. The Mariners, with the 8th best record, are ranked as the 25th best team. These rankings suggest that both teams may have been overperforming this season and are expected to regress in the future.

Considering the projections and team rankings, The Sharp Model X projects the Rangers as the favorites for this game, giving them a 55% win probability. The Mariners are considered the underdogs with a projected win probability of 45%.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, indicating an expected offensive showdown, both teams will rely on their potent offenses to try and secure a victory. The Rangers have displayed impressive offensive numbers, ranking 2nd in team batting average and 5th in team home runs. Meanwhile, the Mariners have an average offense, ranking 24th in team batting average and 13th in team home runs.

Overall, this game promises an exciting clash between two teams competing for a playoff spot. The Rangers will look to capitalize on their strong offense, while the Mariners will rely on their talented pitching staff. With The Sharp Model X favoring the Rangers, it will be interesting to see how the game unfolds and if either team can gain an edge in the tight AL West race.

Mariners Insights

  • The Seattle Mariners have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, The Sharp Model X) (Cal Raleigh, Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, Jarred Kelenic).

Rangers Insights

  • The leading projection system (The Sharp Model X) projects Corey Seager as the 5th-best hitter in the majors when it comes to his batting average ability.

Betting Trends

  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 73 games at home (+15.10 Units / 18% ROI)

  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 45 games (+14.79 Units / 21% ROI)