Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers Matchup Preview - September 22nd, 2022


The Angels are scheduled to start Michael Lorenzen (7-6, 4.74 ERA) against Rangers starting pitcher Martin Perez (12-6, 2.84 ERA) on Thursday. Michael Lorenzen recorded the win in his last outing, as the Angels beat the Mariners 8-7. He pitched 5 innings allowing 3 earned runs with 4 hits. He also recorded 6 strikeouts with 2 walks. The last time Martin Perez took the mound, he recorded a win as the Rangers defeated the Rays 4-3. He finished with 5.1 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, while allowing 3 earned runs on 9 hits. Today, Lorenzen projects for 5.47 innings pitched with 2.8 ER, 5.5 hits, 4.5 strikeouts, and 2 walks, according to THE BAT. Meanwhile, The Sharp Model projects Perez's average outcome to be 6.58 IP, 2.2 ER, 5.6 H, 6.2 strikeouts, and 1.8 walks.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

  • The Texas Rangers have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Michael Lorenzen in this matchup.

  • Matt Duffy's average exit velocity has declined of late; his 86.4-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 77.8-mph over the past two weeks.

  • Projected catcher Max Stassi profiles as an elite pitch framer, via The Sharp Model projection system.

Texas Rangers Insights

  • Martin Perez's 2052 rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 14th percentile among starting pitchers.

  • Corey Seager has been unlucky with his batting average this year; his .242 mark is quite a bit lower than his .287 Expected Batting Average (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • The Texas Rangers bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in the game, per THE BAT.

Betting Trends

  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 43 of their last 75 games (+12.35 Units / 15% ROI)

  • The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.65 Units / 12% ROI)

  • Corey Seager has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+8.60 Units / 30% ROI)