Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins Matchup Preview - August 16th, 2022


Right-hander Zack Greinke is expected to start today for Kansas City, while right-hander Sonny Gray gets the nod at home for Minnesota. Greinke enters this contest with a 4.29 ERA, backed up by a 4.24 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Gray, meanwhile, has a 3.55 FIP underlying his 3.33 ERA. The last time Zack Greinke was on the bump, he recorded the win as the Royals defeated the White Sox 5-3. He left allowing 0 earned runs and recording 5 strikeouts with 0 walks. Gray's last start was against the Dodgers, when the Twins lost 5-8. Over 4.2 innings pitched, he allowed 3 earned runs with 7 hits. He also recorded 5 strikeouts with 2 walks.

Kansas City Royals Insights

  • Salvador Perez has been lucky with his wOBA this year; his .301 figure is quite a bit higher than his .242 Expected wOBA (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • Projected catcher Salvador Perez projects as a horrible pitch framer, via THE BAT projection system.

Minnesota Twins Insights

  • Sonny Gray has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 6 opposite-handed hitters in this game.

  • Byron Buxton has a ton of pop (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (30.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Zack Greinke struggles to strike batters out (17th percentile K%) — great news for Buxton.

  • The Minnesota Twins bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in MLB, per THE BAT.

Betting Trends

  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 83 games (+12.00 Units / 12% ROI)

  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 62 games (+20.40 Units / 30% ROI)

  • MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 away games (+10.05 Units / 47% ROI)