Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Matchup Preview - September 21st, 2022


Right-hander Lance McCullers is expected to start today for Houston, while right-hander Corey Kluber gets the nod at home for Tampa Bay. McCullers enters this contest with a 2.34 ERA, backed up by a 3.37 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Kluber, meanwhile, has a 3.60 FIP underlying his 4.44 ERA. The last time Lance McCullers was on the bump, the Astros beat the Athletics 5-2. He left allowing 2 earned runs and recording 11 strikeouts with 4 walks. Kluber's last start was against the Rangers, when he recorded the loss as the Rays were defeated 3-4. Over 5.2 innings pitched, he allowed 4 earned runs with 9 hits. He also recorded 6 strikeouts with 0 walks.

Houston Astros Insights

  • Lance McCullers Jr. was in good form in his last start and accumulated 11 strikeouts.

  • The Sharp Model X projects Yordan Alvarez as the 7th-best hitter in MLB as it relates to his batting average skill.

  • The Houston Astros bullpen projects as the 7th-best in the game, per THE BAT.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

  • Corey Kluber has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.

  • Ji-Man Choi has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (84% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.

  • Manuel Margot hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (44.2% — 100th percentile) and faces MLB's 9th-deepest CF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 38 games (+4.80 Units / 9% ROI)

  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 74 away games (+22.20 Units / 26% ROI)

  • Jose Urquidy has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 8 away games (+8.35 Units / 76% ROI)