Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Matchup Preview - October 15th, 2022


Lance McCullers (50th ranked SP via The Sharp Model) is projected to take the mound for Astros as they battle the Mariners and George Kirby (47th ranked SP) at T-Mobile Park. The quick scouting report on McCullers: his main fastball is a sinker, which he uses 24.5% of the time. His primary out-pitch is a slider (27.0%). Meanwhile, Kirby primarily throws a four-seamer fastball (46.4%) and his most-used secondary offering is his slider (21.1%). The Sharp Model X projects McCullers for 2.2 earned runs and 4.9 strikeouts in this matchup. On the other side, Kirby is forecasted for 2.1 earned runs and 4.3 strikeouts.

Houston Astros Insights

  • Lance McCullers Jr. is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.8% GB% according to The Sharp Model projections), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in T-Mobile Park — the #7 HR venue among all parks — in this game.

  • The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Yordan Alvarez can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

  • The Houston Astros bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in Major League Baseball, per The Sharp Model.

Seattle Mariners Insights

  • George Kirby has a reverse platoon split and is stuck facing 7 same-handed hitters today.

  • Extreme flyball batters like Cal Raleigh usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Lance McCullers.

  • Carlos Santana has a high pull rate on his flyballs (37.8% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 97 games (+14.05 Units / 10% ROI)

  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 96 of their last 153 games (+27.05 Units / 14% ROI)

  • Adam Frazier has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.35 Units / 41% ROI)