Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Matchup Preview - September 22nd, 2022


Today's contest between the Orioles and the Astros pits THE BAT's 16th ranked SP (Justin Verlander) against the 147th ranked SP (Kyle Bradish). The rundown on Verlander tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 50.5% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a slider (28.5%). Bradish is a four-seam guy (47.8%) who brings a slider as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Verlander deserves something like a 2.64 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 1.78. On that front, Bradish's ERA sits at 5.05 and his FIP at 4.60.

Houston Astros Insights

  • Justin Verlander has been lucky this year, notching a 1.78 ERA despite The Sharp Model estimating his true talent level to be 3.30 — a 1.52 gap.

  • Aledmys Diaz has been lucky with his home runs this year; his 24.80 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is quite a bit higher than his 17.20 Expected HR/600 (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • Chas McCormick has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences today.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

  • Kyle Bradish’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2358 rpm) has been a significant increase over than his seasonal rate (2299 rpm).

  • Austin Hays has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

  • Baltimore's 14.3° launch angle since the start of last season is among the highest in MLB: #3 overall.

Betting Trends

  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 46 of their last 81 games (+10.35 Units / 12% ROI)

  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 52 away games (+20.45 Units / 33% ROI)

  • Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 49% ROI)