Diamondbacks vs Rangers Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - October 28th, 2023

On October 28, 2023, the Texas Rangers will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Globe Life Field. As the home team, the Rangers will have the advantage of the home-field advantage. This game is part of an Interleague matchup, adding an extra layer of excitement.

The Rangers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jordan Montgomery, who is ranked as the #65 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Montgomery has had a solid season, with a Win/Loss record of 10-11 and an impressive ERA of 3.20. However, his 4.02 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this year and could regress in future performances.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks will counter with right-handed pitcher Merrill Kelly, who is ranked as the #61 best starting pitcher in MLB. Kelly has been reliable for the Diamondbacks this season, boasting a record of 12-8 and an ERA of 3.29. Similar to Montgomery, his 3.84 xFIP indicates that he may have benefited from some luck and could see a decline in future performances.

This matchup is the second game in the series between these two teams. In their last game, the Rangers emerged victorious with a score of 6-5. They were considered favorites with a closing Moneyline price of -160 and an implied win probability of 60%. The Diamondbacks, as underdogs, had a closing Moneyline price of +140 and an implied win probability of 40%.

The Rangers have showcased a strong offense this season, ranking as the #3 best in MLB. They excel in team batting average, ranking #2, and team home runs, ranking #5. However, their weakness lies in stolen bases, ranking #25. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks possess an average offense, ranking #17 in MLB. They perform decently in team batting average, ranking #11, and team home runs, ranking #19. Their strength lies in stolen bases, where they rank #3.

According to The Sharp Model X, the leading MLB projection system, the Rangers are the favorites in this game, with a projected win probability of 59%. The Diamondbacks, in contrast, have a projected win probability of 41%.

In their last start, Montgomery pitched well, going 5 innings with 2 earned runs, 3 strikeouts, 5 hits, and 2 walks. Kelly also had a solid outing, pitching 5 innings with 1 earned run, 8 strikeouts, 3 hits, and 3 walks.

With the Rangers' strong offense and the Diamondbacks' reliable bullpen, this game promises to be an exciting matchup. Both teams will be looking to secure a victory and continue their pursuit of success.

Diamondbacks Insights

• The leading projection system (The Sharp Model) forecasts Merrill Kelly in the 79th percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.

• The worst projected lineup of the day in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Rangers Insights

• The Texas Rangers infield defense projects as the best out of every team playing today.

• Nathaniel Lowe is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Arizona (#2-best of the day).

• The Texas Rangers bullpen ranks as the 10th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (The Sharp Model).

Betting Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 90 of their last 162 games (+25.26 Units / 11% ROI)

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 136 games (+12.95 Units / 9% ROI)

• Marcus Semien has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)