Sharp App: Sports Betting

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - October 24th, 2023

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks on October 24, 2023, at Citizens Bank Park. As the home team, the Phillies will have the advantage of playing on their own turf. This matchup is part of the National League League Cha.

The Phillies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Ranger Suarez, who is considered above average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Suarez has started 22 games this year, with a win/loss record of 4-6 and an ERA of 4.18. On the other hand, the D-Backs are projected to start right-handed pitcher Brandon Pfaadt, who is considered a bad pitcher by MLB standards. Pfaadt has started 19 games this year, with a win/loss record of 3-9 and an ERA of 5.72.

This game is the seventh in the series between these two teams, with the D-Backs winning the previous matchup by a score of 5-1. In their last game, the Phillies were heavy favorites with a closing Moneyline price of -180 and an implied win probability of 63%. However, they were unable to secure the win. The D-Backs, on the other hand, were big underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +160 and an implied win probability of 37%.

In terms of offensive performance, the Phillies rank as the 6th best team in MLB this season, with a good team batting average and a solid overall ranking. Their best hitter this season has been Trea Turner, who has played in 167 games with a batting average of .273 and an OPS of .801. Over the last 7 games, Kyle Schwarber has been their standout performer, hitting .400 with 4 home runs and an impressive 1.858 OPS.

The D-Backs, on the other hand, rank as the 17th best team in MLB this season, with an average offensive performance. Their best hitter this season has been Corbin Carroll, who has played in 166 games with a batting average of .283 and an OPS of .863. Over the last 7 games, Alek Thomas has been their top performer, hitting .273 with 2 home runs and recording 1 stolen base.

In terms of the betting odds, the Phillies are the clear favorites with a moneyline of -165 and an implied win probability of 61%. The D-Backs, on the other hand, are significant underdogs with a moneyline of +150 and an implied win probability of 39%. The Game Total for this matchup is set at 8.5 runs.

Considering the projections, the Phillies are expected to have a high team total of 4.76 runs, while the D-Backs have a lower team total of 3.74 runs. However, it's important to note that The Sharp Model X projects both teams to score an average of 0.00 runs in this game.

Overall, the Phillies have the advantage in terms of pitching performance and offensive rankings. However, baseball is known for its unpredictability, and anything can happen on the field.

Diamondbacks Insights

  • Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (41% FB% via the leading projection system, The Sharp Model) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #9 HR venue among all stadiums in today's game.

  • Typically, batters like Tommy Pham who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Ranger Suarez.

  • The weakest projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Phillies Insights

  • With 8 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Ranger Suarez faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

  • Nick Castellanos has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

  • According to the leading projection system (The Sharp Model), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen ranks as the best among all major league teams.

Betting Trends

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 117 games (+14.90 Units / 9% ROI)

  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 67 of their last 122 games (+14.20 Units / 11% ROI)

  • Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.20 Units / 39% ROI)