Sharp App: Sports Betting

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - October 23rd, 2023

On October 23, 2023, the Philadelphia Phillies will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies, as the home team, will be looking to extend their recent success against the Diamondbacks, who are the away team. This game is the sixth in the series between these two National League teams.

The Phillies are projected to start Aaron Nola, a right-handed pitcher who is ranked as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Nola has started 32 games this year, with a win/loss record of 12-9 and an ERA of 4.46. However, his 3.64 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this year and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks will send Merrill Kelly to the mound. Kelly, also a right-handed pitcher, is ranked as the 61st best starting pitcher in MLB. He has started 30 games this year, with a win/loss record of 12-8 and an impressive ERA of 3.29. However, his 3.84 xFIP indicates that he has been lucky this year and may not perform as well in the future.

In their last game, the Phillies defeated the Diamondbacks with a score of 6-1. The Phillies' offense has been strong this season, ranking as the 6th best in MLB and 8th in team batting average. Their best hitter, Trea Turner, has played in 166 games and has a batting average of .275 with an OPS of .806.

The Diamondbacks' offense, while not as potent as the Phillies', ranks as the 17th best in MLB and 11th in team batting average. Their best hitter, Corbin Carroll, has played in 165 games and has a batting average of .283 with an OPS of .866.

According to The Sharp Model X, the leading MLB projection system, the Phillies are heavily favored to win this game with a projected win probability of 61%. The projections suggest that the Phillies will score an average of 4.72 runs, while the Diamondbacks are expected to score 3.91 runs.

The Phillies' bullpen, ranked as the best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, should provide additional support for their starting pitcher. The Diamondbacks' bullpen, ranked 4th best, is also expected to perform well.

With a current moneyline of -180 and an implied win probability of 63%, the Phillies are the clear betting favorites. The Diamondbacks, with a current moneyline of +160 and an implied win probability of 37%, are considered the underdogs.

Diamondbacks Insights

  • As it relates to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (The Sharp Model) forecasts Merrill Kelly in the 79th percentile among all starting pitchers in the game.

  • Evan Longoria is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

  • The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (The Sharp Model).

Phillies Insights

  • The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams on the slate today.

  • Brandon Marsh has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 124 games (+11.95 Units / 7% ROI)

  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 133 games (+12.05 Units / 8% ROI)

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 22 away games (+8.00 Units / 27% ROI)