Sharp App: Sports Betting

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - October 17th, 2023

On October 17, 2023, the Philadelphia Phillies will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citizens Bank Park. As the home team, the Phillies will have the advantage, but they should not underestimate the Diamondbacks, who are the away team.

This matchup is the second game in the series between these two teams. In their last game, the Phillies emerged victorious with a score of 5-3. They had a closing Moneyline price of -160, making them the favorite in that game. The D-Backs, on the other hand, had a closing Moneyline price of +140, indicating that they were the underdogs.

The Phillies are projected to start right-handed pitcher Aaron Nola, who is considered the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Nola has started 32 games this year and has a Win/Loss record of 12-9. His ERA stands at 4.46, but his 3.64 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this year and is likely to perform better going forward.

The D-Backs will counter with right-handed pitcher Merrill Kelly, who is ranked 61st among MLB starting pitchers. Kelly has started 30 games this year and boasts a Win/Loss record of 12-8. His ERA stands at an impressive 3.29, but his 3.84 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well in the future.

In their last starts, Nola pitched well, going 6 innings with 2 earned runs, 9 strikeouts, 6 hits, and 1 walk, while Kelly had a solid outing, going 6 innings without allowing an earned run, striking out 5 batters, allowing 3 hits, and walking 2.

Looking at the offensive side, the Phillies have the sixth-best offense in MLB, ranking eighth in team batting average and tenth in stolen bases. The D-Backs, on the other hand, have an average offense, ranking 17th in MLB, 11th in team batting average, and third in stolen bases.

From a sports betting perspective, the Phillies are currently the favorites with a moneyline of -160 and an implied win probability of 60%. The Sharp Model X projects the Phillies as a big favorite with a win probability of 60%. Based on the current odds, the Phillies have an average implied team total of 4.15 runs.

The Diamondbacks, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +140 and an implied win probability of 40%. The Sharp Model X projects the D-Backs as a big underdog with a win probability of 40%. Their implied team total is a low 3.35 runs.

Considering the pitching projections and the offensive rankings, the Phillies have the edge in this game. However, as with any baseball game, anything can happen, so be sure to tune in to see how this exciting matchup unfolds.

Diamondbacks Insights

  • The leading projection system (The Sharp Model) projects Merrill Kelly in the 79th percentile when assessing his strikeout ability.

  • The Arizona Diamondbacks projected offense projects as the weakest on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.

Phillies Insights

  • The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense grades out as the worst among all the teams on the slate today.

  • Arizona's #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Kyle Schwarber, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

  • According to the leading projection system (The Sharp Model), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen projects as the best out of all major league teams.

Betting Trends

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 118 games (+12.35 Units / 7% ROI)

  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 135 games (+12.00 Units / 8% ROI)

  • Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.60 Units / 19% ROI)