Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles Matchup Preview - September 21st, 2022


Matt Manning (193rd ranked SP via THE BAT) is projected to take the mound for Tigers as they battle the Orioles and Jordan Lyles (271st ranked SP) at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The quick scouting report on Manning: his main fastball is a four-seamer, which he uses 50.7% of the time. His primary out-pitch is a slider (22.5%). Meanwhile, Lyles primarily throws a four-seamer fastball (32.5%) and his most-used secondary offering is his slider (24.6%). The Sharp Model X projects Manning for 2.9 earned runs and 3.6 strikeouts in this matchup. On the other side, Lyles is forecasted for 2.8 earned runs and 4.8 strikeouts.

Detroit Tigers Insights

  • Matt Manning’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (1999 rpm) has been considerably worse than than his seasonal rate (2063 rpm).

  • Jeimer Candelario has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 102.2-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal average of 93.4-mph.

  • Miguel Cabrera has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences today.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

  • Jordan Lyles has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7.4 more adjusted pitches-per-game than average.

  • The Sharp Model X projects Robinson Chirinos in the 4th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

  • Baltimore's 14.3° launch angle since the start of last season is among the highest in the league: #3 overall.

Betting Trends

  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 27 of their last 47 games (+6.55 Units / 13% ROI)

  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 69 away games (+8.10 Units / 11% ROI)

  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)