Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins Matchup Preview - August 3rd, 2022


Today's contest between the Twins and the Tigers pits THE BAT's 293rd ranked SP (Tyler Alexander) against the 84th ranked SP (Joe Ryan). The rundown on Alexander tells us that he leans on his sinker fastball 25.7% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a cut-fastball (25.1%). Ryan is a four-seam guy (57.6%) who brings a slider as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Alexander deserves something like a 4.56 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 4.10. On that front, Ryan's ERA sits at 3.78 and his FIP at 4.42.

Detroit Tigers Insights

  • It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tyler Alexander has relied on his non-fastballs 7.8% less often this season (55.3%) than he did last year (63.1%).

  • Extreme groundball bats like Victor Reyes usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Joe Ryan.

  • Harold Castro has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and will be challenged by the game's 11th-deepest LF fences today.

Minnesota Twins Insights

  • Joe Ryan's 91.2 mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 14th percentile among starters.

  • Jose Miranda has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

  • The Minnesota Twins projected lineup today (.306 projected wOBA according to THE BAT X) projects quite a bit worse than their .320 wOBA this year.

Betting Trends

  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 71 games (+8.20 Units / 10% ROI)

  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 52 away games (+14.65 Units / 25% ROI)

  • Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.55 Units / 56% ROI)