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Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Matchup Preview - March 30th, 2023

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German Marquez (151st ranked SP via The Sharp Model) is projected to take the mound for Rockies as they battle the Padres and Blake Snell (53rd ranked SP) at Petco Park. The quick scouting report on Marquez: his main fastball is a four-seamer, which he uses 30.1% of the time. His primary out-pitch is a curveball (21.6%). Meanwhile, Snell primarily throws a four-seamer fastball (55.5%) and his most-used secondary offering is his slider (24.5%). The Sharp Model X projects Marquez for 2.8 earned runs and 4.6 strikeouts in this matchup. On the other side, Snell is forecasted for 2.1 earned runs and 7.7 strikeouts.

Colorado Rockies Insights

  • The Colorado Rockies outfield defense projects as the worst on the slate today.

  • Ryan McMahon's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 43.5% to 50.5%.

  • Projected catcher Elias Diaz projects as a horrible pitch framer, per The Sharp Model projection system.

San Diego Padres Insights

  • Blake Snell has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 7.5 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

  • Austin Nola's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 91.9-mph mark last season has fallen to 88.4-mph.

  • The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the worst in the league, via The Sharp Model.

Betting Trends

  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.85 Units / 50% ROI)

  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 63 of their last 115 games (+9.25 Units / 7% ROI)

  • Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in his last game at home (+1.85 Units / 185% ROI)

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