Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Matchup Preview - September 30th, 2022
Right-hander Chad Kuhl is expected to start today for Colorado, while left-hander Clayton Kershaw gets the nod at home for Los Angeles. Kuhl enters this contest with a 5.45 ERA, backed up by a 5.18 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Kershaw, meanwhile, has a 2.55 FIP underlying his 2.42 ERA. The last time Chad Kuhl was on the bump, he suffered the loss as the Rockies lost 3-9 against the Padres. He left allowing 3 earned runs and recording 5 strikeouts with 2 walks. Kershaw's last start was against the Cardinals, when he recorded the win as the Dodgers were victorious 6-2. Over 6 innings pitched, he allowed 2 earned runs with 7 hits. He also recorded 7 strikeouts with 1 walk.
Colorado Rockies Insights
Chad Kuhl's fastball velocity has decreased 1.5 mph this year (92.1 mph) below where it was last year (93.6 mph).
Jose Iglesias's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 87.6-mph EV last season has fallen off to 81.1-mph.
Garrett Hampson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
Clayton Kershaw has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
Max Muncy has been unlucky with his home runs this year; his 23.20 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit lower than his 32.90 Expected HR/600 (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).
Today’s version of the Dodgers projected offense is weaker than usual, as their .328 The Sharp Model X wOBA is considerably below their .346 overall projected rate.
Betting Trends
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 54 games at home (+14.70 Units / 23% ROI)
Tony Gonsolin has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 38% ROI)