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Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Matchup Preview - September 30th, 2022


Right-hander Chad Kuhl is expected to start today for Colorado, while left-hander Clayton Kershaw gets the nod at home for Los Angeles. Kuhl enters this contest with a 5.45 ERA, backed up by a 5.18 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Kershaw, meanwhile, has a 2.55 FIP underlying his 2.42 ERA. The last time Chad Kuhl was on the bump, he suffered the loss as the Rockies lost 3-9 against the Padres. He left allowing 3 earned runs and recording 5 strikeouts with 2 walks. Kershaw's last start was against the Cardinals, when he recorded the win as the Dodgers were victorious 6-2. Over 6 innings pitched, he allowed 2 earned runs with 7 hits. He also recorded 7 strikeouts with 1 walk.

Colorado Rockies Insights

  • Chad Kuhl's fastball velocity has decreased 1.5 mph this year (92.1 mph) below where it was last year (93.6 mph).

  • Jose Iglesias's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 87.6-mph EV last season has fallen off to 81.1-mph.

  • Garrett Hampson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 9th-shallowest CF fences today.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

  • Clayton Kershaw has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

  • Max Muncy has been unlucky with his home runs this year; his 23.20 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit lower than his 32.90 Expected HR/600 (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • Today’s version of the Dodgers projected offense is weaker than usual, as their .328 The Sharp Model X wOBA is considerably below their .346 overall projected rate.

Betting Trends

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 54 games at home (+14.70 Units / 23% ROI)

  • Tony Gonsolin has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 38% ROI)


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