Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals Matchup Preview - August 17th, 2022

Editor

Wednesday evening the Colorado Rockies battle against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. The Rockies offense will be led by C.J. Cron, who ranks as the #134th-best hitter in baseball according to THE BAT X. Given C.J. Cron's profile and today's matchup specifics, THE BAT X expects him to average a .285 wOBA, .220 AVG, and .13 HRs. On the other side, Paul Goldschmidt (THE BAT X's #10th hitter in MLB) will bolster the Cardinals lineup. He projects for a .339 wOBA, .264 AVG, and .17 HRs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

  • German Marquez has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7.0 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

  • Jose Iglesias's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 87.6-mph figure last year has dropped off to 81.6-mph.

  • The Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball, via THE BAT.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

  • Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jordan Montgomery has used his non-fastballs 10.6% less often this year (51.2%) than he did last year (61.8%).

  • Paul Goldschmidt has been lucky this year, putting up a .431 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .357 — a .074 deviation.

  • Nolan Arenado has a high pull rate on his flyballs (41.9% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 49 games at home (+14.55 Units / 26% ROI)

  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+14.40 Units / 19% ROI)

  • German Marquez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.00 Units / 54% ROI)