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Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals Matchup Preview - August 17th, 2022


Wednesday evening the Colorado Rockies battle against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. The Rockies offense will be led by C.J. Cron, who ranks as the #134th-best hitter in baseball according to THE BAT X. Given C.J. Cron's profile and today's matchup specifics, THE BAT X expects him to average a .285 wOBA, .220 AVG, and .13 HRs. On the other side, Paul Goldschmidt (THE BAT X's #10th hitter in MLB) will bolster the Cardinals lineup. He projects for a .339 wOBA, .264 AVG, and .17 HRs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

  • German Marquez has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7.0 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

  • Jose Iglesias's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 87.6-mph figure last year has dropped off to 81.6-mph.

  • The Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball, via THE BAT.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

  • Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jordan Montgomery has used his non-fastballs 10.6% less often this year (51.2%) than he did last year (61.8%).

  • Paul Goldschmidt has been lucky this year, putting up a .431 wOBA despite THE BAT X estimating his true talent level to be .357 — a .074 deviation.

  • Nolan Arenado has a high pull rate on his flyballs (41.9% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 49 games at home (+14.55 Units / 26% ROI)

  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+14.40 Units / 19% ROI)

  • German Marquez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.00 Units / 54% ROI)


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