Sharp App: Sports Betting

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Matchup Preview - March 30th, 2023

The White Sox are scheduled to start Dylan Cease (0-0, 0.00 ERA) against Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez (0-0, 0.00 ERA) on Thursday. This will be the first start of the season for both Cease and Valdez. Dylan Cease suffered a loss in his last outing, as the White Sox lost to the Padres 2-5. He pitched 5 innings allowing 4 earned runs with 5 hits. He also recorded 5 strikeouts with 4 walks. The last time Framber Valdez took the mound, he recorded a win as the Astros defeated the Phillies 4-1. He finished with 6 IP, 9 K, 2 BB, while allowing 1 earned run on 2 hits. Today, Cease projects for 5.18 innings pitched with 2.6 ER, 4.7 hits, 6.3 strikeouts, and 2 walks, according to The Sharp Model. Meanwhile, The Sharp Model projects Valdez's average outcome to be 6.37 IP, 2.0 ER, 5.7 H, 6.3 strikeouts, and 2 walks.

Chicago White Sox Insights

  • Dylan Cease has used his slider 13.5% more often this year (42.9%) than he did last year (29.4%).

  • The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Andrew Benintendi is guaranteed to hold the platoon advantage against every reliever the whole game.

  • Projected catcher Yasmani Grandal grades out as a good pitch framer, according to The Sharp Model projection system.

Houston Astros Insights

  • Framber Valdez's fastball velocity has risen 1.4 mph this season (93.4 mph) over where it was last year (92 mph).

  • Martin Maldonado has been lucky with his home runs this year; his 23.70 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit higher than his 17.20 Expected HR/600 (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • The Houston Astros bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in MLB, per The Sharp Model.

Betting Trends

  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 96 of their last 165 games (+31.15 Units / 11% ROI)

  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.30 Units / 30% ROI)

  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+2.30 Units / 56% ROI)